Berkshire is hoarding so. much. cash.
What is the Benner Cycle?
The Benner Cycle is a market cycle model that predicts the ups and downs of the stock market based on a cycle that lasts 18, 16, or 20 years. The model is based on the work of Samuel Benner, a farmer from the 1800s who wanted to understand how market cycles worked. In 1875, he published a book forecasting business and commodity prices. He identified years of panic, years of good times, and years of hard times.
According to the model, there are three types of years:
Panic Years: These are years when the market panicked, either buying or selling a stock irrationally until its price skyrocketed or plummeted beyond anyone’s wildest expectations.
Good Times: Years Benner identified as times of high prices and the best time to sell stocks, values, and assets of all kinds.
Hard Times: In these years, Benner recommends buying stocks, goods, and assets and holding them until the “boom” years of good times, then unload.
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The Benner Cycle is based on a major 54-year cycle. Market tops form in a recurring cycle of 16, 18, and 20 years, leading to an average of 18 years. Benner also identified a 27-year cycle in pig iron prices with lows every 11, 9, 7 years and peaks coming in at 8, 9, 10 years.
It’s important to note that while the Benner Cycle has been claimed to accurately predict the ups and downs of the market for more than 100 years, there is no exact science for market predictions.
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Buffet indicator is showing some wild times ahead perhaps, combine that with Berkshires record high cash hoard of 30%... chart via barchart.com / Longtermtrends
Looks like we're going through something, but who would have thought with all these tarrifs, inflation and trade wars going on
Where does this end up long term with small stocks suffering white giant caps are taking all the coin?
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The spike in red reflects financial strain returning fast. Credit card delinquencies are rising too, hinting that lower-income consumers might be nearing a breaking point. What's going on...
The spike in red reflects financial strain returning fast. Credit card delinquencies are rising too, hinting that lower-income consumers might be nearing a breaking point. What's going on...
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